NLCS Game 5: Who has the Upper Hand?

      The playoffs are easily the most exciting time for baseball. It is the goal that every baseball player, every team, every owner strives for. It is the do-or-die atmosphere, the season ending drama, the late inning heroics that the regular season can't compare to. This year, the first year with two wildcards, hasn't been a disappointment. There have been ups and downs for every team, every player. But this article isn't about that. This article is about Game 5 of the National League Championship Series, between the Dodgers and the Cardinals. 

 
          This series already has seen some crazy things happen. Clayton Kershaw lost 1-0 without giving up an earned run. Yasiel Puig almost had an inside the park home run. Matt Holliday broke his 0-22 slump in Dodger stadium. And now, the Dodgers backs are against the wall, with their season (and more) on the line. The Dodgers are down 3-1 in the series. But who has the upper hand tonight?

          The St. Louis Cardinals have some of the best young pitching in baseball, and a potent lineup that is dangerous almost from top to bottom. They are sending a promising you right hander to the mound in Joe Kelly, a 25 year old who's average fastball velocity is almost 95 mph. He has great stuff, with an electric mid-nineties fastball and excellent secondary stuff, namely his change-up, which sits around 85 mph. He is a tough opponent to face for any lineup, and the Dodgers have been struggling offensively recently.

           The Dodgers are countering Kelly with a former Cy Young award winner in Zack Greinke. Greinke has a average fastball which sits around 92 mph, and good secondary stuff. But he did win a Cy Young for a reason. He can pitch, and any game he can find it and start racking up the zero's. Greinke statistically has one of the top 15 curve ball in the league. In the season, he put up good numbers, with a 2.63 ERA, to go along with a 15-4 record and 148 strikeout's.

         But with two studs on the mound, who is going to get the win? In my opinion, I give the edge to LA. In Greinke's first time out against the Cardinals earlier in the series, he went 8 innings, struck out ten, and only allowed four hits. He's been around the block before, and he has been in high pressure situations. LA is also playing at home. Joe Kelly, while still an excellent pitcher with unbelievable stuff, hasn't had the experience that Greinke's had, and even though he is a worthy opponent, I think that LA will get to him and win the game.

The Red Sox Key to Success

         For many people, including myself, the Red Sox were not considered contenders. Actually, to put it more plainly, they were expected to fall far short of the postseason. They were a team with questionable pitching, with no speed, with an old line up who could hit for a little power, but not for average, with average fielders. They weren't anything special. They didn't have any young stars, like  Harper, Machado, or Trout, they didn't have any perennial MVP's, like Miguel Cabrera, Evan Longoria, or Andrew McCutchen. But here is my opinion on their success.
     
        My grandfather, who played ball in AAA in the 1930's and 40's before blowing out his arm, who played with Tommy LaSorda for a year and was called in a letter by him "the swellest guy I know", says that the Red Sox are the luckiest team he's seen in his life. After watching much of the season, I would agree that they are quite lucky. I mean, what are the chances that, like what happened in a Seattle Boston game, a manager calls in the wrong reliever? It never happens, but it happens to the Red Sox. Also watching the Red Sox, I noticed that many of their hits were bloopers and seeing eye singles that sneaked through the infield. They were a very lucky team. But to me, that couldn't be the reason they were in first place.
       
         I hate when people over rate players, and in my opinion, that is what happens with a lot of the Red Sox players. Napoli, the Red Sox first baseman, is hitting .257, with 23 home runs, and a .839 OPS, which is respectable. He also has 182 strikeouts. 182! for those of you that don't follow baseball too closely, that is a lot. He has done well for the Red Sox, but I laugh when people put him in conversations with players like Miguel Cabrera, Manny Machado, ect. Lester is another player I think gets more credit than is deserved. He is considered the Red Sox "ace". His ERA is hovering around 3.70, and he only has 173 strikeouts. He is not a dominating pitcher as many say he is. So if they aren't hitting, and there're not pitching, how are they winning? A few weeks ago, I got curious and decided to look into it more.

       
        I found the answer in the first place I looked, where I expected to find the answer: in the statistics. The Red Sox offensive statistics are outstanding. A quick background on sabermetrics, to tell you what it is about if you don't know. The idea of sabermetrics, is that players (in all sports) are over or undervalued because of ancient scouting and reviewing techniques. The best way to see past these misjudgments is through statistics.          
         In baseball, the point of the game is, obviously, to score more runs than the other team. To score runs, you need to have runners on base. You can't score (normally), if someone gets out. So therefore, the more someone gets on base, the more valuable they are to your offense, so obviously you would want your team to get on base as much as possible. We judge that by using a few statistics, mostly OBP (on base percentage) and BB's (Base on Balls, or walks). Slugging percentage is also a very important statistic in judging a team's success.
         
        The Red Sox lead all of the Major Leagues in slugging percentage (.441). The Red Sox are also in first place in OBP, and in third place in BB's. This has caused the Red Sox to score 830 runs, the most in baseball by a far margin. This has allowed the Red Sox to take some pressure off their pitching staff, and has propelled them into first place.